The Council establishes rigorous standards for the field of probabilistic forecasting and operates the Center for Prediction Markets (CPM), a non-profit research laboratory dedicated to market microstructure and integrity.
View Certification StandardsThe Council on Forecasting Standards (CFS) is a non-profit research institute dedicated to the advancement of prediction science. In an era of rapid information volatility, the integrity of probabilistic forecasting is essential for public trust and academic inquiry.
Unlike commercial exchanges, the Council operates the Center for Prediction Markets (CPM), a limited-scope electronic market designed to gather empirical data on the efficacy of verified competency in financial markets.
Investigating how safety guardrails and participant classification affect price discovery, spreads, and volatility in event contracts.
Studying the extent to which standardized market education and certification can mitigate behavioral biases in probabilistic forecasting.
Validating whether professional standards lead to more accurate calibration and efficient information processing in matters of public interest.
To ensure market safety and data integrity, CPM operates under a "Dual-Guardrail" system. Participation is strictly tiered based on demonstrated competency and research utility.
Open to the general public for the purpose of establishing baseline sentiment data and engaging in practical forecasting training.
Restricted to verified experts who have demonstrated liquidity management proficiency and successfully passed the Council's examination.
The Certified Forecaster (CF) designation is the academic standard of excellence for expert practitioners. It signifies that a professional has demonstrated a rigorous understanding of probability theory, decision science, and market mechanics.
To achieve the CF designation and qualify for Advanced Research Access (Guardrail 2), candidates must complete the full progression:
The Council does not directly provide preparatory training. Instead, we accredit independent third-party organizations to administer the Certified Forecaster (CF) curriculum. This separation ensures the independence of the Council's regulatory function.
To qualify as an Authorized Education Provider, partners must demonstrate full compliance with the Council's research framework:
Organizations wishing to apply for accreditation status may contact the Council directly to request the Standards Handbook.